Boston's Lester takes mound vs. Rangers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Lester goes for his seventh straight home win today, as he leads the Boston Red Sox into the finale of a four-game series with the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park.

Lester, who tossed a perfect inning in the All-Star game on Tuesday, has been one of the hottest pitchers around, especially at home, where has won six straight starts with a 1.60 ERA over that stretch. The left-hander, who is 11-1 with a 1.90 ERA in his last 15 starts overall, allowed two earned runs over six innings of a 14-3 win over Toronto in his last outing on July 9th.

In five career starts against Texas, Lester is a perfect 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 33 innings.

Getting the nod for the Rangers is C.J. Wilson, who is 1-3 with a 3.05 ERA in seven road starts this season. His lone road win, however, did come at Boston on April 22nd, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 3-0 blanking. It marked his first career start against the Red Sox.

Wilson, though, is coming off a shaky start last Sunday, when he allowed three earned runs over just 4 2/3 innings of a 4-1 loss against Baltimore. He walked five in his second shortest outing of the campaign.

With Lester and Wilson opposing each other this could be another tight game like Saturday, when Kevin Youkilis' sacrifice fly in the 11th inning gave the Red Sox a 3-2 win over the Rangers in the third contest of a four-game set from Fenway Park.

With Alexi Ogando (3-1) on the mound, Marco Scutaro led off the 11th with a walk. Darnell McDonald then laid down a bunt that Ogando fielded, but his rushed throw to second went off of Scutaro and into the outfield, putting runners at second and third. After an intentional walk to David Ortiz, Darren O'Day took the mound, and Youkilis lofted a fly ball to center that allowed Scutaro to score with ease for the win.

Youkilis went 2-for-4 and tied the game in the ninth with an RBI double, while Ortiz drove in the other run for the Red Sox, who had dropped three of four.

"You don't have to hit home runs to win ballgames," Youkilis said. "That shows tonight. That's one of the things I said in the dugout in extra innings. We don't need a home run."

John Lackey went seven innings in the start and was charged with two runs on seven hits with a pair of walks and three strikeouts. Manny Delcarmen (3-2) got the win for throwing a flawless 11th inning.

Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz each had two hits and an RBI for the Rangers, who have lost five of seven.

Cliff Lee made his second start in a Texas uniform and again went nine innings as he was charged with two runs on six hits with a walk and six strikeouts.

"Still kind of frustrated with giving up that run in the ninth when we've got a one-run lead there," Lee said. "But other than that I'm pretty pleased with how it went."

Boston took two of three bouts from the Rangers in an April series and have won in 12 of the past 17 meetings between the teams held in Beantown.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.