Rachel Alexandra has last work before year's debut

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/02/2010 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rachel Alexandra, 2009 Horse of the Year, had her final major workout Tuesday morning before her 2010 debut. The four- year-old filly breezed six-furlongs at the Fair Grounds in preparation for the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies on Saturday, March 13.

With regular exercise rider Dominic Terry aboard, Rachel went the six-furlongs in 1:13 3/5 on a track listed as fast. She went seven-furlongs in 1:26 2/5 and 1:41 1/5 for a mile.

"I was hoping she'd go a little quicker," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "She settled off the other horse (Depaul) really nicely. She stayed with her left lead trying to stay with the other horse, then she switched to her right lead and accelerated. We're happy with where she's at. The main thing is she's healthy and this is a step in the process to getting her back to her previous level.

"She was a little keen early. She was very aggressive and hard-held early. For him (Terry) to still have control with one in front of her was very impressive. It was a little slower from the five-eighths to the three- eighths."

Owned by Jess Jackson and Hal McCormick, Rachel Alexandra could face as many as 10 challengers in the 1 1/16-mile New Orleans Ladies. When nominations for the race closed this past Saturday 16 fillies and mares were named.

Seven of the horses are considered probable with several others listed as possible. Among the probables are Clear Sailing, a four-year-old filly trained by Glenn Delahoussaye and owned by Keith and Ginger Myers.

"She's doing great," said Delahoussaye. "She's going to work Wednesday and we'll see how she works and how she comes out of it and take things from there. We're working her Wednesday with the intention of running her in the New Orleans Ladies."

Clear Sailing is the winner of three of four career starts with earnings of $92,940. Last month she won the $60,000 Pelleteri Stakes at the same distance as the New Orleans Ladies. The daughter of Empire Maker is undefeated in her last three starts, all with jockey Shane Sellers.

"I don't think there's any trainer in the world who's insane enough to say he's looking forward to running his horse against Rachel Alexandra," said Delahoussaye, "but for me this race is not about whether it's Rachel or not Rachel in there against our horse. The New Orleans Ladies fits the progression about where I wanted to be at this point in time.

"Right now we're trying to keep our filly's races at least a month apart, because my owners have this dream of winning a stakes races at Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week. The New Orleans Ladies would keep us on a schedule for Churchill's La Troienne Stakes on Kentucky Oaks Day. That's our long term goal."

According to Fair Grounds stakes coordinator Scott Jones, other probable starters for the Ladies include Bayakoa Handicap winner Zardana, trained by Zenyatta's trainer John Shirreffs; Double Espresso, winner of the Pan Zareta Stakes at the Fair Grounds and Unforgotten, second in last year's Chicago Handicap behind 2009 champion female sprinter Informed Decision.

Rachel Alexandra will follow her start in March with an ultimate showdown versus Zenyatta. The two female thoroughbreds are to finally meet at Oaklawn Park in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational on Friday, April 9.

Zenyatta is based at Hollywood Park where she has been working out. Owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, Zenyatta will start in the $250,000 Santa Margarita Invitational on March 13.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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